South Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

883
FXUS61 KRLX 152342
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
742 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry through Saturday. Heat and humidity increases
through the weekend. A frontal boundary approaches Sunday and
stalls through much of next week, with increasing rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 737 PM Friday...

No changes made to the forecast with high pressure in place
keeping conditions tranquil with drier weather. There are some
showers and thunderstorms across central KY and the TN/VA/NC
Tri-State Area. Latest HRRR run shows some isolated cells trying
to spawn across the WV/VA mountain border the next two hours,
but confidence is rather low given the stout inversion up to
700-500MB.

As of 120 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

* A period of hot and humid weather is expected Saturday through
  Monday, with heat index values across the lower elevations in the
  middle to upper 90s.

* The chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  increase each day from Sunday through the middle of next week
  as a frontal system approaches then stalls over the region.

Surface high pressure continues to build into the region from the
northeast, promoting widespread subsidence with capping at H700. The
inversion appears to weaker across southeast Ohio based on model
soundings, supporting by a remnant morning ACCAS field. An isolated
shower cannot be ruled out in this area this afternoon, but will cap
any isolated mentions toward the lower end of that category.
Likewise, terrain enhanced parcel ascent closer to the higher
terrain may also support an isolated shower. For the remainder of
the CWA, a dry forecast is maintained.

Afternoon high temperatures will be near seasonal normals, reaching
the upper 80s to near 90 degrees across the lower elevations.

With mainly clear skies and light winds tonight, conditions will be
favorable for radiational cooling and the subsequent development of
valley fog, which may become dense across the valleys. Cover will
likely be a little less than last night with ground conditions where
any lighter rain recently fell quickly drying out. Lows will drop
into the mid to upper 60s.

Surface high remains in control as H500 heights gradually build
Saturday. Would expect another mainly dry forecast, though a stray
terrain-driven shower or thunderstorm could pop up over the higher
elevations during the afternoon. Confidence in this is low, and any
activity would be short-lived..

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Friday...

The main forecast challenge revolves around temperatures and
humidity. NBM guidance suggests dew points climbing into the low
70s, which would push heat index values toward 100-105 degrees
Sunday and Monday, especially in the Metro Valley and southeast
Ohio. This appears to be influenced by a higher density of
personal weather station high biased dew points getting into
bias correction. Therefore, a blend of MOS guidance has been
used, resulting in dew points in the more realistic upper 60s.
This adjustment keeps maximum heat index values in the mid to
upper 90s, just below Heat Advisory criteria. High temperatures
will be several degrees above normal, climbing into the low and
even mid 90s for the lower elevations.

By Sunday, the northwestern periphery of the ridge begins to erode
as a cold front slowly begins to approach from the upper Midwest.
While forcing remains weak, the added moisture and instability ahead
of this feature will support a slightly better chance for scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily focused across the
northern half of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...

The cold front is expected to roughly bisect the forecast area from
west to eat on Monday before stalling and wavering for much of the
remainder of the work week. This boundary will serve as the primary
focus for showers and thunderstorms, with multiple shortwaves
traversing the flow aloft providing periodic enhancements to
precipitation. With a moist airmass in place, some of these storms
could produce locally heavy rainfall.

By late in the week, guidance suggests an upper-level trough digging
into the Northeast. This feature is expected to pick up the frontal
boundary and push it south and east of the area, leading to
decreasing precipitation chances and a trend toward more seasonable,
less humid conditions by next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 733 PM Friday...

VFR conditions remain in place with stout inversion in place
under high pressure. Dense valley fog will form as a result.
Most locations will likely see IFR conditions or lower with any
fog formation. Any fog is expected to lift by ~13-14z with VFR
conditions resuming in due fashion.

Winds will be calm or very light and variable through the
period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of fog
formation may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
A stalling frontal boundary will increase chances for afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday, which
could produce brief IFR conditions. Morning valley fog may produce
IFR conditions through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP/LTC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...LTC